Statistics.
P-values, power and intervals — the tools that keep confident nonsense out.
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Statistics is the discipline that tells you how wrong you might be. Skipping it is how confident nonsense gets published — in journals and in broadcasts.
What this field actually measures
- p-value
Probability of data this extreme if the null hypothesis were true.
ReferenceThe conventional 0.05 threshold is a convention, not a law of nature.
LimitIt is not the probability that the hypothesis is true. It never was.
- Statistical power
Chance of detecting an effect that genuinely exists.
ReferenceReviews across biomedical and social fields repeatedly find median power well below the 80% target.
- Confidence interval
Range of values compatible with the data.
ReferenceFar more informative than a point estimate, and far less frequently quoted.
Evidence & metrics
The published work behind the numbers above, and the public datasets you can open to check us. If a claim can’t be traced here, we don’t print it.
Citations
ASA statement on p-values: context, process, and purpose
Wasserstein & Lazar — The American Statistician · 2016
A p-value does not measure effect size or the probability the hypothesis is true, and thresholds should not drive conclusions.
Why most published research findings are false
Ioannidis — PLoS Medicine · 2005
Low prior probability, small samples, and flexible analysis make a large share of published positive findings unreliable.
Datasets
Global Change Data Lab / University of Oxford · free
Sourced, downloadable long-run series across health, energy, and economics.
US Census Bureau · free
Population, economic, and survey microdata with published margins of error.
Still open
- How much published sport science is underpowered?
- Should effect sizes and intervals be mandatory in public sports reporting?
- What replaces null-hypothesis testing in applied settings?
What we won’t say
We will not call a result 'significant' as though that meant 'important.' The word has a technical meaning and a marketing meaning.
- VO-1Evidence before wit
- VO-2Punch at claims, never at people
- VO-3Say the uncertainty out loud
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