Decision Science.
How high-stakes decisions actually get made, and how to grade them honestly.
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Most bad decisions in sport and business are not information failures. They are predictable reasoning failures under time pressure — and they have names, measurements, and partial fixes.
What this field actually measures
- Base rate neglect
Ignoring how common an outcome is when judging a specific case.
ReferenceOne of the most reproducible findings in judgement research.
- Calibration
Whether things you call 70% likely happen about 70% of the time.
ReferenceUntrained forecasters are typically overconfident; calibration improves measurably with feedback and scoring.
- Brier score
Squared error of probabilistic forecasts.
ReferenceLower is better; it is the standard way to grade a prediction record honestly.
Evidence & metrics
The published work behind the numbers above, and the public datasets you can open to check us. If a claim can’t be traced here, we don’t print it.
Citations
Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk
Kahneman & Tversky — Econometrica · 1979
People weight losses more heavily than equivalent gains, which distorts risk-taking under pressure.
Do firms maximize? Evidence from professional football
Romer — Journal of Political Economy · 2006
NFL teams punted in situations where going for it had higher expected value, a systematic and persistent deviation.
Datasets
nflfastR fourth-down decision data
nflverse · free
Play-level win-probability inputs for every fourth-down decision since 1999.
Many Labs / OSF decision-making replications
Open Science Framework · free
Replication data for classic judgment and decision-making effects.
Still open
- Which debiasing methods survive outside the lab?
- How should organisations record decisions so that quality can be judged apart from outcome?
- Does analytics adoption improve decisions or just relocate the confidence?
What we won’t say
We will not grade a decision by its result. A good process can lose, and we log the process.
- VO-1Evidence before wit
- VO-2Punch at claims, never at people
- VO-3Say the uncertainty out loud
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