Probability
Playoff Odds
Feed in the current record, remaining games, and true talent. We simulate the rest of the season 20,000 times and return your playoff probability.
Inputs
Result
Playoff Probability
71.0%
Favored
- SoS-Adjusted p
- 0.540
- Wins Needed
- 36
- Projected Wins
- 89.8
- Games Left
- 70
Methodology
We model the remaining schedule as a series of independent games, each won with the same probability p. Playoff probability is the tail of the resulting binomial distribution above the cutoff.
Strength of schedule. The team's true win rate is adjusted for opponent quality using log5: p = (t·(1−s)) / (t·(1−s) + s·(1−t)), where t is true talent and s is average opponent win%.
What this ignores. Tiebreakers, head-to-head matchups, injuries, and division vs. wild-card mechanics. Use the output as a probability floor for a healthy roster.