Front Office

$ / WAR

Build the two sides of a contract. We price projected WAR against the open-market cost of a win and return surplus value — a verdict, not a guess.

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Inputs

Projected WAR / year4.0

Contract years6

AAV ($M)28.0

Market $ / WAR ($M)9.0

Recent free-agent winters cluster near $8–11M per win.

Aging

Result

−$6.0M

Mild overpay

Total WAR: 18.0
Market value: $162.0M
Contract cost: $168.0M
$ / WAR paid: $9.3M

18.0 WAR × $9.0M − $168.0M = −$6.0M

Methodology

Year-n WAR is projected WAR minus n times the aging slope, floored at zero. Market value is that WAR stream times the $/win input. Surplus is market value minus guaranteed salary.

WAR_n = max(0, WAR_0 − n × aging)
Value = ΣWAR_n × $/WAR
Cost = AAV × years
Surplus = Value − Cost

Limits No option years, no deferrals, no luxury-tax NPV, no injury risk. A positive surplus is not a recommendation to sign; it is an accounting identity given the inputs you chose.